Tuesday, February 16, 2016
5 Ways Scalia's Death Complicates The 2016 Election
After the death of former Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, there has been a lot of uproar and debate over who Obama will nominate for his replacement and whether or not the nomination will be accepted or not by the Senate. But how does this factor into the upcoming election? Will the nomination ordeal aid the Democratic Party or hurt them in the general election? What about primaries? Will it increase voter turnout this election?
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The affect that Scalia's death will have on the election will be determined by the actions of Obama and the senate. If Obama nominates a reasonable, qualified candidate and the senate rejects him/her, I belive there will be negative consequences for Republicans in the general election. If Obama nominates a candidate who is either unqualified or very far to the left and the senate rejects him/her, I believe that the Republicans will do more favorably in the genre election. As far as the primaries go, I think that this issue will matter less because 1) Obama still hasn't nominated anyone and 2) the presidential candidates seem to have fairly consistent views on this issue within their parties.
ReplyDeleteThis factors into Scalia's death will have on the election in that it will determine the actions of Obama. If there is a reasonable candidate nominated, I thinjvthere will be negative consequences for the Republicans in general. If Obama nominates someone who isn't that well qualified, then I think that the Republicans will do more things in favor to the general election. He primaries will matter less becasue the presenting candidates have consistent views on this issue with the party and Obama still hasn't nominated anyone. I believe it should increase voter turnout.
ReplyDeleteFor the most part, I agree with Andrew. I think a very sizable portion of the electorate believe that waiting and entire year to nominate a Supreme Court Justice is highly unreasonable, especially if Obama nominates someone who tends to lean toward the center as opposed to the far left. There will probably be an enormous outcry against the Republican Party if that were to occur. The more attention that this issue gets and the longer it drags out, the worse it will be for the Republicans.
ReplyDeleteThis factor will affect parties based on how this situation plays out. The majority of the population probably believes that the GOP's tactic of delaying the nomination of a supreme court justice is not a good choice for our country. So, the GOP will most likely have a net loss of support if the Senate rejects Obama's nominations. This may create gains or losses in the Democratic party based on the ideology of Obama's nominees. Ex. if he decides to nominate a liberal he may not receive as much support from moderates in the electorate. In primaries, this issue is not as important because there is not too much variability in the preferences of the candidates in their respective parties, though if the candidates voice their support/disapproval of certain nominees they may gain or lose support based on the people of the electorate that they have just attracted/alienated. As for voter turnout, this issue could increase turnout because of the major importance of the Supreme Court in our history, and the possibility of a less conservative justice being brought into a court that has been conservatively dominated for almost the past 50 years.
ReplyDeleteThis could determine which party gains more influence and backup from the Supreme Court with their legislation. I think whoever Obama nominates can either vastly help or hurt Democrats depending on how the public responds. I think this will eventually be a big issues of debate in the primaries and moving forward. I'm honestly not sure if one vacancy on the supreme court will rouse voters, I think whomever the two candidates eventually are will determine if voter turnout rises or falls.
ReplyDeleteIf the senate rejects the nomination with no real reason why, or they try to put of making a decision on the nominee until the election, it could hurt the Republican party. I don't think it will be possible for the senate to wait until the election without facing some sort of consequences. I think this issue will help to increase voter turnout because the Supreme Court plays a major role and this gives people another reason to vote.
ReplyDeleteThe decision on who to fill Scalia's seat in the Supreme court is sos crucial because it will be what determines which party has power in the Court. Obviously Senate will most likely not be happy with whoever Obama nominates because the House and Senate are both controlled by Republicans right now and Obama is a Democrat. If you did your math right it's clear that most likely Obama will nominate a Democrat or more liberal figure for the position which in turn opposes the ideas of the House and Senate. I believe however, that this also plays an important role in the upcoming election because if the Republicans win the presidency and they are still in control of the House and Senate and then gain the Supreme Court, we will be in big trouble. Hoping that most people realize the potential of what could happen I hope this results in higher voter turnout not only for our own sake but for the country's sake as a whole.
ReplyDeleteI think the Democratic party will remain almost completely untouched by this "controversy". They, in comparison to the Republicans, look like the good guys who just want to do their jobs. Republicans, on the other hand, come off as whiny children and that is going to hurt them very badly in both the general election and the Senate election. Obama nominating a moderate makes him look very reasonable which makes the Republicans look even worse. And at this point, the damage has been done. I find it difficult to believe they might change course at this point. But the longer this plays out, the worse their numbers will become (and, alternatively, the better the Democratic numbers become). The Supreme Court nomination process is a chess game that the Republicans are losing badly.
ReplyDeleteScalia's death and the open chair are simply another talking point for the Republicans. The surrounding controversy about the Senate confirmation is absolutely absurd. If anything, it shows how selfish politicians are and how broken the system is. This does not bode well for the government in general. The republicans and democrats are polarizing even more over the issue. I don't think the issue will have much of an impact on the upcoming election, it is simply just a coinciding occurrence that may provide a few talking points.
ReplyDeleteScalia’s death actually complicates the upcoming election in myriad ways. Ultimately, if the Republicans in Congress do not allow Obama to appoint a justice, many people will not be happy with the GOP and some Republican senators and house members could be replaced with Democrats. Furthermore, this could help the presidential election, as the public could realize that they would not want a party in power who is not following the rules. However, if Obama appoints a more liberal judge, the GOP and its strong supporters will not be happy, as Scalia was very conservative. Either way, this could lead to a bigger turnout at the primary, but since it’s farther away than we think, it might be old news by then and we’ll end up with the same turnout rate as always.
ReplyDelete