Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Race tightening up in battleground Ohio
A CNN poll conducted from October 5-8, after the debate on October 3, shows that the difference between Obama and Romney have decreased to 4%, with a sampling error of 3.5% in Ohio. The previous poll that was conducted before the debate showed that Obama had a 7%-10%, lead over Romney. Other polls, like the American Research Group, also show that both the candidates are neck and neck. Mitt Romney has a 14% lead over Obama in male voters, and Obama has a 22% lead over women voters. As November 6th, is approaching, the lead for Obama has been decreasing. Both the parties have spent about $92 million on advertising in Ohio, and out that $20 million have been spent in the last two weeks. Both, the candidates are campaigning in Ohio right now, making it even more interesting. Which ever party make the most noise in the next two weeks might win Ohio, whether it be Obama or Romney. "This is the battleground of the battlegrounds."
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This is really surprising! I would not expect Romney to do well in Ohio, at least, this close to doing well. The sampling error in Ohio is 3.5% and Obama is leading by 7-10% of Romney. This is close, which makes it very interesting. This IS the battleground of the battlegrounds as said by John King. They said in the article that the survey was taken after the first debate. We talked about this in class. Because many people believed Romney won, the polls started to have more towards Romney than Obama. The polls, if predicted like in class, should go down and be more for Obama like the previous ones. But even still, I have to admit, this is crazy. I remember the caucus's being like this and it made it really interesting to read about, but now, this is for President; a much bigger title.
ReplyDeleteI think that Ohio will come down to the debate tonight. If Paul Ryan comes out strong like Mitt Romney did than Joe Biden will have to show up strong as well. After watching interviews of Paul Ryan though, I do not think that he will be able to do this. I do think though that Paul Ryan, given his track record, may say something that does not go over very well with the nation. I do not really expect much from Biden to be honest, but I have been wrong before. He may just surprise everyone and come out swinging and be strong (or do the exact opposite). That being said though another major point may be the other candidates. Virgil Goode is on the ballot and since he is from the Republican party, I have a feeling he may just steal away some crucial votes from Romney which may cost him the state and the election.
ReplyDeleteI have to say that I'm not surprised by the fact that the gap between Romney and Obama in Ohio has narrowed. I think that most people will agree on the fact that Romney won last week's debate. As a result of the hype, the polls are likely to show an increase in Romney's favor. Once the excitement dies down, the polls will probably level out close to where they were before the debate.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I do believe that Romney can pull ahead permanently depending on how well the vice presidential debate goes tonight. After Obama's lackluster performance in the presidential debate, voters will be extremely attentive to the vice presidential debate to try to gain a better picture of what each prospective administration can do for the country. I am extremely interested to watch the debate because I feel as though the candidates truly represent the differences between the two parties which should make for a very interesting debate.
After tonight’s debate, there will definitely be a clearer picture of which candidate is most likely to win the ever important battleground state of Ohio. However, I still think it will premature to be certain of who will win because the poll numbers are so close and many votes are undecided and are likely to change their minds before election day.
I do not think that the vice presidential debate will really have that much of an impact as they usually do not, unless one of the two candidates really messes up. Ohio is very important though and whoever wins it makes it very hard mathematically for the other candidate to win the election. I would really hate living in Ohio though. Every four years you get bombarded with political campaigns and you cannot escape. At least you would have a tremendous amount of political power though compared to most other states' citizens.
ReplyDeleteThough I'm surprised about Romney's sudden jump in votes, it's only normal to see the candidate who had a better debate gain some votes. One thing I noticed was the obvious split between male and female voters. When we learned the about the gender gap in class, I didn't expect the margin to be so large.
ReplyDeleteEven though the lead may have gotten much smaller, the margin of error could still lean Obama's way and give him 7.5% lead. It's still extremely close though. Any sudden events for either party could lead to their downfall. We've seen elections in the past where the difference in votes was a couple hundred, so the ads in Ohio must be taking up a majority of the entertainment. It'll be interesting to see how the voting turns out based on the last couple of weeks of campaigning and debating.
I again agree with what Nicolette is saying. I think that the first debate was very beneficial to Romney’s campaign for now but like Nicolette says when the hype dies down or if President Obama has a better second debate, the polls could easily show different numbers. I found it neat that Romney has a 14 point lead with men and Obama has a 22 point lead with women voters in Ohio considering we just discussed in class how gender effect party identification. It was great proof for that point made in class.
ReplyDeleteI too think that the vice-presidential debate will hold some significance over upcoming polls and as I watch it right now it is interesting to hear the candidate’s opinions on most of the topics that the articles I have read tonight talk about. I look forward to seeing the polls after tonight and if they change.
It was clear that Mitt Romney won the first debate, and we knew that would gain a few points but we need to wait a few weeks to separate the hype from the debates and the real opinions. After every debate the winning candidate's points go up, and usually they go down. We will just have to wait and see what the next debates will bring. But is its clear on both sides that Ohio in 2012 will be just like Florida in 2000.
ReplyDeleteAs I am watching the debate it is clear that there are two very different plans, views, and results. Americans are going to have to face the facts and realize what is best for them. And I know that many Americans (at least 47%) will realize that what we need is what we have had for the last four years, and not what he had before four years ago.
I think that the polls are going to go back to where they were before the debates. People are not going to care if Obama had a rough night, they will look at the issues and make their decision that way.
In class, we mentioned that President Obama was leading in most if not all of the polls taken at that time. However, the article has indicated that Romney has closed the gap in the polls with his successful Presidential Debate. American Research Group's survey in Ohio has indicated a swift in support from Obama to Romney. The one thing I remain skeptical of is whether Romney's spike in support is merely monetary hype or not. More hope may have been given to the Republicans with Romney's Presidential Debate, but there are many more vital Political events yet to happen. The contrast due to gender was also a shock to me. I did not realize that women and men's political support varied so drastically. The article also mentioned that 1 in 8 voters could potentially change their minds on which candidate deserves their support. This only makes the future political events more crucial.
ReplyDeleteI think that if Romney wins the next debate he has a real chance of winning this (more then prior to the debates). Also in response to Sebastian you are right in saying that the two candidates are polar opposites. But you have to consider the fact that not everyone follows politics as much as they should (just saw on the news people getting interviewed saying football first politics second). So you have to consider the fact that people will base their opinion on how well they presented their case not what they actually said unfortunately. But I guess we will see what happens in November.
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