Monday, October 8, 2012
Drop in Jobless Figure Gives Jolt to Race
Here is an article from the New York Times about unemployment rate in the month of September. In the month of September the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest since the month President Obama took office, from 8.1% to 7.8%. The author talks about the reactions of Mitt Romney to the unemployment rate, saying that the unemployment rate dropped because "millions of Americans had given up looking for work." When you look at that you may think that it's true. But, their were two recent surveys on job report, that show the unemployment rate decreased because their was a growth in the number of jobs, but not because millions of people quit searching for a job. Also, the author states that there were no polls done so far that show that there was no significant change in economics or politics, which it probably won't. I think the drop in unemployment rate, will have minor effect for right now but, it won't be a major factor in November. This will probably re energize President Obama giving him a little confidence, from his defeat in the debate on October, 3. What do you guys thinks?
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I see it as this: the president has dropped the unemployment rate by a mere 0.3%, but it is still better than nothing. There are some countries that have a terrible unemployment rate, but Obama is making ours less and less. I must agree with Satish on this, because the drop isn't big enough to make a significant impact on the election until, maybe, the last two weeks before the election. Don't get me wrong, it is amazing that he dropped the unemployment rate down, but not enough to really surprise people into saying "Holy cow! Unemployment is at 4%!"
ReplyDeleteThe article says that the economy has gotten better as Obama leads the country. The consumer strength has went up, along with consumer confidence, stronger auto sales since four years, rallying stock prices, and stabilizing house prices. Who wouldn't want this to continue? I think I am speaking for everyone here by saying everyone would want this to continue and hopefully it will in the next four years.
Lastly, I know they are enemies, but Obama and Romney need to stop bashing each other. In the article, Obama says "This country has gone too far to turn back." I know, it is to encourage the democrats, but it is still not necessary. Romney does the same thing as well by saying "We don't have to stay on the path we've been on. We can do better." Yet again, bashing the other candidate, but I can understand it is to rally their parties. I just wish politics were not all about sides and more about what one can do to help the other.
I love how Romney is making fun of Obama for the unemployment (sarcasm), but has anyone noticed how it is still down more than when the recession first hit? It is an improvement over what Bush did. Also all of the people saying Obama "massaged" these numbers are suffering from tunnel vision. How about instead of trying to put each-other down all the time they can work towards the positive thing of getting this country back on its feet (economically speaking). Of course that is pretty much impossible right now. Also when Romney said we can do better I thought we can also do a lot worse too. We already had a recession that we're finally coming around from, why jeopardize that? Also I think Romney's comment on how people just drop off unemployment statistics to be much more of a minority than he actually makes it out to be. It would be the equivalent of me saying "I failed a class for one marking period, well I'll just quit." Granted I am not dropping off any records, but I would be severely limiting my future and only end up hurting myself.
ReplyDeleteEven though the drop in unemployment is very slight, it is still nice to see some type of improvement. I hope that with whoever wins the election that the we will continue to see this decline in unemployment; however I do fear that with a change of control it could go the other way. I also agree with Satish that this will not have a huge impact on the election but for the voters that pay close attention and see a trend in the president’s policies I think it will benefit him.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately Aubrey, the candidates are going to bash one another. It is a part of our politics and with the two parties that we have, I think sometimes the candidates feel they need to separate themselves from the other as much as possible.
I know to me these numbers do not hold a lot of significance and it is difficult to translate what these figures mean, but I think if we see improvement in our day to day lives then something right is happening in D.C.
I agree with Sats and Brian that claims that the White House "massaged" the numbers are unfounded. The abundance of other positive data, like a jump in consumer confidence, the strongest auto sales in four years, rallying stock prices, and a stabilization of housing prices indicate that September's drop is concrete.
ReplyDeleteThis is very good news for the Obama campaign, despite what Romney backers say. However, it remains to be seen if Romney's victory in the debate, albeit with questionable claims, has done more damage than this jobs report can hope to fix.
Perhaps the small decrease will actually swing some voters that are somehow still on the fence between Romney or Obama. It may not be a huge leap, but it's still a step in the right direction. I'm guessing that it's a long process and won't magically jump down huge percentages, no matter how good a policy is. This removes some of the potential firepower that Romney can use at debates since he focuses so much on the economy. If he decides to make lame excuses for the decrease it'll just make him look worse. I think this is actually a big deal since it'll be recent enough to be relevant during election day.
ReplyDeleteThis will surely help Obama and could stop Romney's debate momentum. It's obviously good that unemployment is starting to go down and I think it will continue to go down immediately after the election no matter who wins because of the added certainty it will give companies as to what the economic policy coming out of Washington will look like. This leads to companies being more confident when assessing if they should expand or not. What really annoys me about how the unemployment rate affects the presidential election so much is the fact that the president has very little power to do anything about it but people put great emphasis on whether it has risen or fallen under the current regime. The checks on presidential power contribute to this but it's more the economy itself and how free enterprise works. If you look at economic ups and downs throughout U.S history, it is dictated more by what happened in the private sector or around the world and not what the Government did. As much as people like to blame Obama or Bush for the economic collapse in 2008, they weren't the ones betting on Wall street investments or giving out terrible home loans. It's been this way forever in this country so it is still surprising to me when people blame the Government over all other entities which contribute more to the successes and failures of the economy.
ReplyDeleteI feel the same way about unemployment rates effecting presidential election the most among other things. I think it is the way it is because the majority of the people have little knowledge politics in general, and what really happens in Washington, D.C, I could be wrong, it's just what I think. It's probably one the things, that people don't give much thought to it.
DeleteThis of course will help Obama any increase can help at this point in the election. Of course there is one thing that is left out of this article. They don't really show the quality of these jobs. I mean sure we could have college students working as cashiers but that really isn't a stable platform to rebuild the economy on, also it doesn't use their full potential. We need to have high level jobs more available for everyone. Something that has hit rather close to home for me and my family is the fact that 500 people at my dad's job at Lockheed Martin in Moorestown where laid off. A lot of them he said where young straight out of college "kids" who he said where doing rather good. To me it is a good sign that people are getting employed (obviously) but we need to look deeper then the numbers.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that America is now under the 8.0% mark for unemployment is very important for Obama's campaign. The article states that Romney has emphasized on the fact that the unemployment rate for quite a while was above the 8.0% mark, but Obama can now but those attacks to rest. Now that the Republicans can not attack the % of unemployment, they are attacking whether the statics are valid or not. I strongly believe that the Republican theories are forced and not accurate.
ReplyDeleteIf the unemployment % is falling, why should we risk changing paths. The unemployment rate may not be plummeting right away, but I believe that we are getting there. Therefore, we should stay with the policies and plans that we are currently implementing. The article states that President Obama stated," We've made too much progress to return to the policies that led to this crisis in the first place."